2016年12月30日 星期五

20161231 2016年總結

成本/股息 市值 盈虧 回報率
1163033.23 1126375.45 -36657.78 -3.15%
44312.85 計入股息=> 7655.07 0.66%

回顧:
1. 買賣太多,35次買入,15賣出。
2. 買入太急,多數因為股價下跌而接飛刀。應考慮安全邊際(如估值之下15%)。
3. 賣出太早,如維他奶、中銀、匯豐、九倉。因現金比例太低或想止蝕。
4. 盈富平均買入價太高($23.7),沒能在高位如24.8減持。


2016年12月10日 星期六

2016-12-08 Kelly criterion lecture

剛讀完Lecture 2: The Kelly criterion for favorable games:
stock market investing for individuals https://www.stat.berkeley.edu/~aldous/157/Slides/lecture_2.pdf
結論是:I’m not going to discuss whether you should invest in the stock market at
all. If you choose to do so, here’s the academic viewpoint.
The default choice is (something like) a S&P index fund, available with very low expenses.
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If you really want to do better then there are three vaguely plausible ways
none of which I recommend.
Borrow money, if you can find a low interest rate.
Diversified Kelley-optinmized portfolio, like IFA.
Long term market timing such as the Shiller PE ratio [show

2016年12月1日 星期四